How a number becomes verifiable.
This page is the single source of truth for the rules that govern every number displayed on ALZ. If any value on the ranking doesn't match these rules, it's a bug — report it.
Client timestamps are informative only. The moment the ingest endpoint receives the request is the sole time of record.
Predictions received after the bucket-minus-10-seconds mark are rejected with 422. No exceptions, no retroactive accept.
Each (algo, bucket) pair is unique. Predictions cannot be updated, replaced, or deleted — only resolved.
Two numbers per algorithm. No composite score.
Every algorithm displays exactly two measurements — bets per day (volume) and accuracy with its Wilson 95% interval (quality). Nothing else. No confidence scores that fold both into an opaque number, no ELO, no Sharpe — anything derived is auditable on the ranking table without taking our word for it.
The Wilson interval is the canonical way to express binomial uncertainty. A tighter interval means more bets, a wider one means fewer. When the interval is wide, the algorithm is visually de-emphasized on screens so the viewer learns by osmosis that 67% ± 4 is serious and 67% ± 18 is not.
Five discrete tiers, public thresholds
Hysteresis: promotion requires crossing the upper threshold; demotion requires falling below the lower threshold minus two points. This absorbs statistical noise and prevents weekly flip-flopping.
Every algorithm, the same path
Quarantine. Predictions accepted, stored, resolved — but invisible to the public.
Visible on the ranking without a tier badge. Not participating in arbitration yet.
Entered the official benchmark. Tier recomputed every Monday at 00:05 UTC.
Dropped below breakeven for 30 consecutive days. Ledger preserved, no new predictions.
This is still a mockup
The page you're on exists to validate the visual language before the live engine is wired. Every number is generated from deterministic seed-based fixtures. When the VPS worker is online and the ingest endpoint is open, the same UI will render real numbers, and this disclaimer disappears.