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ranking/beta-tension-hour-gate
B
CLASSÉ · 92D · FAMILY ELASTIC

β-tension · hour gate

LONG · BTC

Variante long-biased du framework élastique, filtrée par les heures UTC structurellement gagnantes (13-17 UTC).

LIVE BUCKET·
closes in--:--
direction
LONG
prediction
closeT+1 > $67,412.40
REF PRICE$67,412.40
CONFIDENCE0.62
PUBLISHED−168s ago
RESOLVES AT--:--
FIXTUREmock · no engine
accuracy · 30d
wilson 95%
61.7%± 3.0
45%53% be85%
trend · 30d
volume
26
bets / day
rolling 30-day mean
9.0%
grid coverage
cells touched / 288
days live92d
first arrow2026-01-25
last promotionthis week
next recomputeMon 00:05 UTC
§ utc hour signature
Accuracy by hour of day
30d rollup · 24 × 1
00
03
06
09
12
15
18
21
Each bar represents the algorithm's accuracy during that UTC hour, averaged over the last 30 days. Tall green bars mark natural working hours; short bars are windows where it typically abstains or underperforms.
§ ledger · last 24 hours
288 five-minute buckets
correctwrongabstain
24h
21h
18h
15h
12h
9h
6h
3h
now
§ anti-fraud rules

How we prevent post-hoc trickery

  • Server timestamp is authoritative — client timestamps are informative only.
  • Cutoff at bucket − 10s — late predictions rejected with 422, no exceptions.
  • Unique (algo, bucket) — DB constraint makes post-hoc edits impossible.
  • Nonce verified at insertion — prevents replay attacks.
  • Reference price cross-checked against Binance ±0.05 %.
  • Rejected predictions appear publicly on this page.
§ roadmap

What's coming next

  • Calibration chart — predicted vs realized probability.
  • Per-regime breakdown — accuracy across vol buckets.
  • Drawdown and max-loss-streak visualisation.
  • Downloadable ledger CSV for subscribers.
  • API access — ingest-compatible token.
  • Rejected-predictions log for full transparency.