D
RETIRÉ · 88D · FAMILY THERMO
hawkes burst · v0
SIDE
Première version burst detection sur aggTrades. NO-GO v1, resubmission prévue.
LIVE BUCKET·—
closes in--:--
—
direction
ABSTAIN
prediction
closeT+1 · $67,412.40
REF PRICE$67,412.40
CONFIDENCE0.51
PUBLISHED−999s ago
RESOLVES AT--:--
FIXTUREmock · no engine
accuracy · 30d
wilson 95%
51.2%± 4.5
45%53% be85%
trend · 30d
volume
2.1
bets / day
rolling 30-day mean
0.7%
grid coverage
cells touched / 288
days live88d
first arrow2026-01-25
last promotionthis week
next recomputeMon 00:05 UTC
§ utc hour signature
Accuracy by hour of day
30d rollup · 24 × 1
00
03
06
09
12
15
18
21
Each bar represents the algorithm's accuracy during that UTC hour, averaged over the last 30 days. Tall green bars mark natural working hours; short bars are windows where it typically abstains or underperforms.
§ ledger · last 24 hours
288 five-minute buckets
correctwrongabstain
24h
21h
18h
15h
12h
9h
6h
3h
now
§ anti-fraud rules
How we prevent post-hoc trickery
- Server timestamp is authoritative — client timestamps are informative only.
- Cutoff at bucket − 10s — late predictions rejected with 422, no exceptions.
- Unique (algo, bucket) — DB constraint makes post-hoc edits impossible.
- Nonce verified at insertion — prevents replay attacks.
- Reference price cross-checked against Binance ±0.05 %.
- Rejected predictions appear publicly on this page.
§ roadmap
What's coming next
- Calibration chart — predicted vs realized probability.
- Per-regime breakdown — accuracy across vol buckets.
- Drawdown and max-loss-streak visualisation.
- Downloadable ledger CSV for subscribers.
- API access — ingest-compatible token.
- Rejected-predictions log for full transparency.